Presidential Ambitions and A 40-Year Coincidence

Not that I am overly interested in either of the two personalities that are striving to sit in the Oval Office after next week, but I do find this ever-changing polling graph of interest.  The margin between the two candidates seems incredibly small if such polls are to be believed.


Although the chart is labelled 'Really Clear Politics' the reality is that politics are usually anything but clear. It is the nature of politics that there are winners and losers but which ever party gets in, America has a tough road ahead.

Of significantly more interest to me is the change in Chinese leadership that is taking place at the moment.  What a contrast in style it is from the hoopla experienced in the USA.  The Straits Times has an excellent section on the issues and the challenges that they face.

They are labelled the Lost Generation because of what they missed out on during Mao's Cultural Revolution.  As correspondent Peh Shing Huei puts it, they had no childhood, no education, no family and, in the eyes of many, never felt happiness.

How has this shaped their attitudes, their global vision and their capability to take on the challenges China faces. We shall have to wait and see.

The reins will be handed over on November 8th to Vice-President Xi Jinping, Vice-Premier Li Keqiang and other members of the fifty plus generation.  First they will need to navigate their way through the shoals of factional in-fighting and it will be 350 top cadres of the Chinese Communist Party who decide the final make up of the top table.

It is a once-in-40-year coincidence where both the China and US leadership changes at the same time.  It all makes for an interesting month or, if politics is not your thing, switch to the Shopping Channel.

Related articles

• Is China more democratic than the West?
• Secrecy of China's Party Congress

The New President of Jurong

Mr Christopher Pereira has
created a new model of
the outgoing president
 - Straits Times - 

So now we have it, the result of the recount which shows that the new president Dr Tony Tan won by just 0.34% more of the vote than the second place-getter.

Considering that 2,153,014 votes were cast and the winning margin between the two leading candidates was a measly 7,269, both sides must be ruing the fact that 37,826 votes were spoiled.

To the victor the spoils as the old saying goes, so congratulations to President Tony Tan who can now look forward to a salary that is the highest paid for any elected official in the world - S$4,267,500.

It is also a victory for PAP party organisation who rallied their troops behind Tony Tan.

The government will be delighted with the outcome as they have 'their man' in the Presidential chair who can be counted upon to support their every move.

One has to feel sorry for the candidate who came second, Dr Tan Cheng Bock, who has been the most popular choice but lacked the party infrastructure to get him past the finishing line.

No doubt he will remain the "President of Jurong" in the minds of many, irrespective of this election result. As he said in his final speech of the early morning "I hope this election will set Singaporeans thinking…".

I am sure that they already thinking; about the outcome of the next election in four years time.

Election Mark II

Today Singaporeans choose their next President and much has been made of the virtues (and a few political  'vices') of the protagonists.

One result is certain, by end of day we will have a 'President Tan' in office but which one will it be?  As it is is the first contested presidential election in18 years it will be interesting to see which way the voters swing.

Will they continue their 2011 swing towards a candidate less closely affiliated with the ruling PAP party? Or has this negative energy dissipated?

Whoever is the winner, they will be casting a fatherly eye over the reserves piggy bank and it will be a "fatherly" eye, as all of the candidates are male.

Hopefully in future contests this gender imbalance will be rectified as it was the women MP's who impressed me most in the previous government. Madam Halimah Yacob would have been my pick but perhaps we will see someone of her calibre put their name forward next time around.

In a less serious vein, the title 'President Nicole Seah' also has a  certain ring to it, but one suspects she will need to 'age gracefully' before being able to take on the mantle of office!

To lighten the presidential decision making load,  readers may care to cast their eyes on the soothing waters of the Pacific, as captured in my latest print below.

Pacific Montage II
Roger Smith, 2011

(Click on print to view a larger image)

The Presidential Check List

Choosing a President is never an easy task as many of my Singaporean friends will no doubt tell you.  Later this month they go to the polls once again; this time to choose President Nathan's replacement.

I confess to be living back in a country that doesn't have such an office.  We cling to the last vestiges of our colonial past with a Governor General as our Head of State and the Queen's representative.  There are those who would like to replace the G.G. with a President but I am not one of them.  This preference is based on my observations of the shenanigans that surround the presidential electoral process in other countries -  the States and Italy being amongst the worst examples.

Despite my reservations I couldn't help but wonder what my own checklist for picking a suitable President might be?  I have come up with the following:

1. Pick someone who hasn't been born with a silver spoon on their mouth.
   A man of the people needs to have been fully immersed in the day to day life of the community through face-to-face service throughout their working life. Only then can they truly claim to be the people's president.
   
2. Removed from Government machinations
   Even though the presidential role is largely ceremonial a President need to be perceived to be clearly aside from the ambitions of the government of the day, and to have been so for some considerable time.  Not out of touch nor diametrically opposed to those in power, but able to provide the necessary impartial political checks and balances as and when required.
   
3.  Sound moral fibre
   A predilection to the demon drink and chasing hotel maids (or airline stewardesses) might be seen as an attribute in some European countries but it does not project the country in the best light and such a candidate should be discounted with alacrity. And don't be lulled by the false sense that the average age of most presidential hopefuls is at least seventy; many still have the libido to make themselves a nuisance if they are that way inclined.
   
4. Gravitas
   Pomp without pomposity should be a defining attribute.  The ability to carry out Presidential ceremonial duties with the dignity of the office in tact I see as essential.  A mumbling moron with a slouch, one who doesn't know his knife from his fork simply will not do.
   
5. Fiscal Prudence
   If your Presidential salary is in the millions and you banquet by candlelight most nights of the week it could be very easy to lose touch with reality.  Someone who has been able to manage a family budget in reduced circumstances would have the edge when it came to my pick.  If they knew where the best value for money chicken rice was in the Heartland, even better!

As to the Singaporean election we can be assured of one thing; the next President will be a President Tan.  The questions remains, which one?

Related articles

• Four Candidates Eligible for Singapore President (online.wsj.com)
• The PAP tactic - Tell, Confuse, Apologize, Cry. (javertsworld.wordpress.com)

Presidential Ambitions

Tomorrow is the first day of winter; a season I was delighted to escape during my time in Singapore, although it has to be said that many of my Singaporean friends would just as gladly swap their June/July heat for a good New Zealand frost.

But it promises not to be a 'winter of discontent' for aspiring Presidents. FIFA's Sepp Blatter has neatly sidestepped any reference to corruption at the sport's highest table, although the rest of the world views matters differently. He is no doubt keen to keep his $900,000 plus salary intact.

In a more positive vein, Singapore is once again going to the polls, this time to choose a replacement for incumbent President Nathan.

Eugene Tan writing in the Today Online believes that unlike the previous elections there will be a contest this time.

"And it is probable the strong ground sentiments, polarised political mood and emotions that characterised this year's May GE will also manifest themselves in the presidential polls. This is despite the Presidential Election not being a political contest in which candidates debate and challenge each other on political platforms and policies".

Even though candidates for this high office have to be 'non-partisan' by nomination day, this prerequisite fools no one, as previous party affiliations are well known by the local populace.

I would not be surprised if an overtly PAP endorsed candidate would find such support a 'poison chalice'.  The recent General Election demonstrated an increasing desire for opposition voices to counterbalance the PAP majority.

Not that the President has any real power to countermand government policies.  His or her role is largely ceremonial; none of a Blatter- style autocratic overview would be expected nor tolerated.

So who will emerge from the woodwork to lay claim to the title? The pay and conditions will surely prove an attractive lure but not everyone can be sure of even standing. Candidates need to apply for a Certificate of Eligibility to run and this is available from tomorrow.

Last time around  only one of the four candidates was granted this elusive certificate and that was President Nathan.

The career history and experience of the other three candidates counted against them according to the selection committee. They did " not have the experience and ability in administering and managing financial affairs as to effectively discharge the duties and responsibilities of the office of the President" was the verdict at the time.

The government appoints the three person Presidential Elections Committee (PEC) and in 2011 the composition of the committee consists of the Chairman of the Public Service Commission, Mr Eddie Teo, Ms Chan Lai Fung, chairman of the Accounting and Corporate Regulatory Authority, and Mr Sat Pal Khattar, a member of the Presidential Council for Minority Rights. Mr Teo will chair the PEC.

Former PAP MP Dr Tan Cheng Bock looks as if he will throw his hat into the ring and President Nathan could also seek another term.  It will be interesting to see who else passes the stringent, preliminary vetting process.

Related articles

• Sepp Blatter - 'Crisis? What Is A Crisis?' (theoriginalwinger.com)

Who Is Challenging Whom?

Click on this image to see the larger chart and then click aagin.

Unfortunate Sign Juxtaposition

It never ceases to amaze me how people installing event signage rarely consider the placement of their banners.

The above are two classic examples, taken from photos taken by passing Singaporean motorists. I am sure that the ruling PAP party would not be impressed with the contractors responsible for this contextual cock up.

Meanwhile an enterprising citizen has decided to employ Google Maps to record election rallies (see below) although I can't see any for the ruling PAP and must presume that the publisher is in the Opposition's camp?



在較大的地圖上查看Singapore GE 2011 Rally Venues

Not Living In Disney World

Commenting on its selection processes and the need to keep rejuvenating the party MM Lee is quoted in the media as saying:

"'We combed the whole of Singapore society to select those with the highest integrity and ability to chart the way forward for Singapore. We will never reach a point where we can be on auto-pilot so that any team can just take over. We are not living in Disney World".

Pointing out the many notable achievements his party and the country has achieved over past decades the clear inference is that if Singaporeans choose to 'rock the foundation' they stand to put these gains at risk.

I am not so sure that such a scare tactic will work this time around?  In the past the calibre of opposition candidates has been 'patchy', to be charitable.  This time though a quick glance through the electorate party lists shows that the alternative parties have a good raft of well educated and worldly wise candidates.

Pronouncements from sitting government MP's that a strong opposition could result in blocked policies suggests that they may be more concerned about the Opposition strength than they care to admit.

There is no doubt that the PAP will win the election and by a substantial majority.  With a Westminster- styled government there is no danger of the government benches having their policies blocked.

Monitoring the social media 'buzz' (see research study below) shows a growing groundswell of support for the Opposition parties especially amongst the young, so there could well be more Opposition members voted in.

And, in relation to Disney World, it was of course Walt Disney who said: "If you can dream it, you can do it".

Related articles

• GE: Opposition fielding larger teams and better qualified candidates for GE 2011 - Channel News Asia (news.google.com)
• Youth vote crucial in next GE (sg.yfittopostblog.com)